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Mad Money

News/Business. (2012) New.

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

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San Francisco, CA, USA

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Comcast Cable

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

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mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
528

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 13, Cramer 8, Penney 3, Conagra 2, Nyse Euronext 2, Garth 2, Scottrade 2, Sandy 1, Calvin Klein Licenser 1, Scottr 1, Kramer 1, Bristol Myers 1, Harry Reid 1, Rodger 1, Grover 1, Bernice 1, Unlards 1, Bet 1, Cosco 1, Mez Merrized 1,
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  CNBC    Mad Money    News/Business.  (2012) New.  

    November 27, 2012
    6:00 - 7:00pm EST  

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i like the grains here. you get soy, wheat and corn all in there. that is your trade for tomorrow. >> thanks for watching. see you tomorrow 9:00 a.m. for squawk on the street. don't go anywhere. i'm jim cry cramer. there is a bull market somewhere. "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. i'm trying to make you a little money. wa call me. consumer confidence highest in four years. ♪ hallelujah frnl♪ . number of people planning to buy a house. record high.
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robust holiday season sales from the get go. when we are perched on the cliff. >> the house of pain. >> welcome to a world a ball of confusion. confusion that produces results like we had today in the market. where the averages were down falling 89 points. nasdaq drifting 3.80% lower. they actually got their way out of the down turn at the same time that the cliff jump would send us back into one. how can it be? >> a couple of reasons. first is what really matters number one asset, her house and that house price is going higher as we found out from the 3% gain
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in home prices reported by the survey this morning. you get the property values up and you get a consumer who decides that all is not lost. 14,000 may be transitioning from the hole in their house to being in the black again. that could be driving this confidence locomotive. >> all aboard. >> it has changed in the last year. the last time we worked the consumer confidence level. it was in february of 2008. home prices were beginning their traumatic fall. we could be having a developing home shortage. also explains the endless buy on the home goods stocks.
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more important, these housing price increases have to be considered when it comes to the positive psyche of the homeowners which might explain the consumer confidence in the fiscal cliff. perhaps the majority of the people who were polled are oblivious to the dangers of the physical cliff. maybe they don't know what it means. maybe they don't know about the tax increases that await us. do they know about the layoffs and the ta awtake away of the stimulus. are they foolish and brave? smug, we won't go back into a recession? perhap s obtuse. first off, we shouldn't be putting that much faith in the
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consumer value customers to begin with. it was right at the beginning of the breakdown of society as we know it. sure, they were confident. but they were wrong. second, many people polled were paying income taxes. we know that 47% of the people in the country were paying the rates. but a lot of people in the country, cohorts are small and it is a small part of the survey. given how difficult the tax code is to comprehend. i have been trying to figure out what it could be. that makes me cautious. third, it is possible we are overstating the whole fiscal cliff issue. there are people that kcalculat
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how much they would owe. they are still spending aggressively. maybe they don't care. perhaps the fiscal cliff is not impacting people because so much of the discussion has to do with dividend taxes. the majority of americans including i'm willing to bet, don't have taxable gains to p k speak of. there has been a spade of dividends to spare. but these are small. they don't affect more than a handful percentage wise. capital gains may not be enough to move the confidence needle to increase the value of your home. most stocks haven't appreciated enough to have capital gains anyway. finally, there is the
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possibility that most of those poll ed polled generally agree that a deal may be reached and that they aren't in charge. maybe they believe that the radical democrats believe that the republicans aren't controlled by some guy named grover norcross. that are needed to forge a compromise. in this issue i have to admit that i grow less confidence by the day. we have heard harry reid say there has been less progress in the talks. it looked to be a beneen session. we have been reading how the republicans were open to a deal that includes revenue increases.
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we aren't reading how the leadership agrees to it. i'm sure they don't record the presidential election as a referendum to anything. they vote for the betrayial as their own defeats. because the tax increases would amount to a de facto destruction. in other words, let's say you are a hard line democrat. you get higher taxes for the rich. the hard line democrats don't care about the stock market. they probably care that the republicans face hard line stocks anyway. many of the hard liners want a smaller defense budget. here is the bottom line. the combination of these lines
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pla believe that it is blissful not ignorant. the bill will come soon enough even if there is not an agreement. i say we solve the cliff and we go over the cliff and it turns out that the consumer was just past the dpraf yard all along. >> hi jim. i have grown to adore your show. it is enhanced by your insight and personality. i would like to know your thoughts about the high end luxury retail stocks and how they will fair with both the short-term and long-term. >> stocks didn't rally. these are all problems with the fiscal cliff. everyone of those stocks, sort
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of going off had we heard there was a deal. we have to wait for a deal or we can't plunge in. thank you for all of those kind words. >> can we go to paul in new hampshire? >> booyah from the granite state. if the mortgage interest deduction is lieliminated, whato you think the impact will be? >> impact on real estate investment trusts? >> they are totally trading as a factor of the dividend tax. and what people think it can eastern after tax on how little the yeelields are right now. those stocks are too low and the socks appreciated.
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they are not as much a question about refies. those i think you have to avoid right now. the consumer i think is blissful. but it may turn out that the consumer is ignorant. >> coming up. stocking sufficie ining stuffer. rising over 50% after a deal to buy a major calvin klein licenser. is it time to put this one under the tree? >> don't miss kramer's conversation with the ceo. the deal shock the street this morning. >> as the shares heat up. should you be tempted to take a bite. cramer in wraps what is ahead. ready to reverse? the charts have not been kind.
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but cramer has found pattern. as jim goes off the charts. all coming up on "mad money." >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow@jim cram ee mxmcramer on. send jim an e-mail. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. head to "mad money." [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person,
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urks now that we are right in the middle of the shopping season, little uncertaintily over the fiscal cliff, you need to own companies that exist regardless of what happens on the economy. take pbh. host of other brands you know. back on october 31st, we learned
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that pbh was acquiring a brand th for $2.9 billion. you have the house of chatral together. deals have always been perfect. pbh reported after the bell today and the results were very strong. the company reported strong earnings let's check in with the fabulous chairman and ceo find out more about the quarter. good to see you. all right this was a very interesting thing this quarter. you had already told people that you thought you could beat the number. you had four cents more than
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anybody thought. was it the strength of the consumer here. is it how much better europe is for you? >> what is the make up of that last bit? >> margins were better. we were being on the gross margin line. better with taxes and overall, this quarter given the warnico acquisition we were forced more or less to come out and give guidance and we took it up. so it was a strong quarter for us. one of the things, and i know it is not as important, but your heritage brand, 3% increase, this is a major change, it is in the middle of a tremendous turn over, so we are expecting a strong third quarter.
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somewhere in the six to seven percent range and strong earnings. is that jc penney? >> who is driving that? >> a big piece has to do with the jc penney business. we put those new shops in, back to school and they have continued to deliver strong results for us and for jc penney. we have happy the way that the izo d izod brand is doing. >> sandy had to shut down a lot of stores for you. the hurricane storm 35-40% of your business is done. it is a big part of our business. it did impact us in the first part of november. we were were able to still raise
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the year we were able to do. we were looking for a big 4th quarter. revenues will be up 7%. we were looking for earnings per share growth. so, we are expecting 4th quarter, a holiday season to continue very strong. how important is the cost of acquisition and the core basic strength of the business? i mean to me, it has to be a big up year given the strength of what you can do already. >> we have talkeded about the strength of the brand overall worldwide. we think we can add to that. we think the acquisition can be clear in the first year. we talked about two to three years from now.
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so, that you know, that is the point next year is a transition year, bringing the business in. i think we have talked about 35 cents a share, but i think the real opportunity there is greater than that. >> i have been emphasizing companies that take the bull by the horns. when you hit that triple b minus rating, do you still get low cost debt? >> yeah, look this is a great time to invest. if you are smart about it and you look at the historical levels of where the interest rates are, we could borrow at low rates now. we can use it as a weapon to grow our business and our bra brands. you don't want to overburden the company with debt.
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but we should be in a strong position with that. it allows us to grow the brand. you have been in asia one day. is it upon us with the warnico accuraciation? >> it should be 20%. >> that much? >> that is huge. >> 15% of our revenues, we'll double the sisz size of our asi business. it is one of the fastest growing markets. >> as will latin america has been a strong area for us. that business is up as well. >> gigantic. and those areas and being able to develop operating platforms dif gives us an advantage. >> one last question, try and
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understand the problem here. we talked about the fiscal cliff. the consumer that you talk about, is probably the strongest in multiple years, is there a reconciliation here, and yet taxes going up? >> i'm not an economist. but i can say to you, look, great brands, command higher prices and drive consumers. we are all about taking the brands and growing those businesses globally. the world is going to go through ups and downs. i think that is what we have put together. i guess i would say that the u.s. consumer for the holiday season seems to be in good shape. >> thank you chairman and ceo.
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we are tieing there. after the break trying to make you some more money. >> coming up. the deal shook the street this morning. but as the shares heat up. should you be tempted to take a bite. cramer are unwraps what is ahead. but cramer has found pattern that is signaling the turn around. as jim goes off the charts. all coming up on "mad money."
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this company has the most exposure to commodity prices. after a lengthy chase the company was able to make a move toward world corp.
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the grocery store brands that taste the same as the real thing. conagra will be the largest private label. consumers love it because it is cheaper. private label products carry it. and now it is about to become the king. welcome back to "mad money." >> it is good to be back. point blank, what is the vision here. when i go through the conference call, you actually call out cosco, trader joes and it seems
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like you are in a lot more stores. >> you know jim that is true. our vision we have talked about before, we have a clear strategy a recipe for growth. and private label is clearly one of them. we are excited to have this strategy play out with the biggest private label. how do you take your brands to the supply chains throughout the country? >> well, jim, one of the things
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that gives me the highest degree of confidence is that we have almost $1 billion of private label business. so we have the private label business. that is probably the most important second is that our strategy is not to compete with ourselves between branded and private label. there is little overlap that we anticipate going down that path. we will be in other segments under private label.
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those are all brands that are regional pasta brands that are almost like control brands. you will not see us advertising pennsylvania dutch noodles on the super bowl. we don't consider them major branded products. those are good strong regional brands in the markets that play them. >> probably the best example is mcdonald's. we are a big player as the biggest potato company in north america.
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so, we will become a bigger player in some of the channels where we already have presents, but we'll have a greater scale with key customers like mcdonald's. you have been terrific at trying to keep commodity prices down. are you able to get a better deal from them? very similar to what we have done here, we were a big company and we didn't have a lot of size
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but we have scale. when you can buy as one $18 billion company, that scale leverage is very important in things like procurement in suppliers. you know, i'm trying to figure out whether the consumers are in great shape or not. are your highest products selling as great as they were before? >> it is a very, bifurcated economy today with the consumer. you have high-end consumers that were feeling pretty good. in basic every day needs, people no matter what economic strata they are in, they are trying to save on those basics.
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they are doing pretty well like marie calendar's. they will do very well. but there are other folks, a majority or people who are sticking to a strict budget. and they only have so much to spend at the grocery store. that is one of the reasons why this orientation with the private label, to play here, things like innovation, customer management, where we can bring all of that to bear on products that stores are looking to sell under their own label and deliver really strong high quality value for the money for
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many consumers who are working for a tight budget. >> the market agrees with me. this was a great acquisition. congratulations. >> thank you, jim. >> okay. conagra is going higher, guys. i like this acquisition very much. stay with cramer. >> coming up. are you ready to get charged up? >> all new hyper active lightening round. having you ship my gifts couldn't be easier. well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and a santa to boot! [ chuckles ] right, baby. oh, sir. that is a customer.
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it is time for the lightening round. are you ready? it is time for the lightening round. let's start with tony in new jersey.
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>> thank you so much for the help that you give us each day. i bought ebt. what do you think? >> yeah, i was talking with my friend. he worked with me at the street here. we were mez merrized. we don't want to tell it here. we think they can rally. let's go to know in iowa please, joe? >> what do you think? >> i don't advise shorting. i think the stock is over banked. let's go to brian in joyork. how was your thanksgiving? >> how was yours? >> seeing eli manning's all time touchdown pass was better. ambercrombie. >> you were like that jerk i saw
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leaving the game the other day. >> my stock is ambercrombie. i'm wondering what is going on. >> i think that the stock was so heavily shorted. i think you should take profits in it. i feel like bradshaw about it. and not terry. the sl one. >> anyway. all right. let's go to bernice in new york. i hear you talking about bristol myers a lot. >> it is like the dallas cowboys.
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let's go to kevin in connecticut. everything is being colored by mcdonald's which is not doing that well. it has had a nice run. good booyah from montana. que is, we have a stock. you recommended dvax. >> trouble trouble. you know i have to tell you something. it is not right, i don't want you to tell it here. i don't think that they can get that trial ready by february here. >> let's go to mark in ohio. >> hello, jim. booyah from cincinnati. thank you for aj green. >> i had a question about cdi.
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i think it is okay. so, you know what. let's go to don in california. my stock is fsys. >> yeah, you know that is not been that -- you know no. i don't like the prospects there. and that was the special fantasy football lightening round. >> coming up. ready to reverse? the charts have not been kind to
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foreign financials. but cramer had found pattern. as jim goes off the charts. this. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married, they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
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right now this market is facing two big problem areas that need to be worked out themselves. first, the united states can only hope that they decide to rise above partisan politics. the second problem zone is easier to get a handle on. one stock tells you everything you need to go. san. the spann iish bank that bottom over the summer. if you want to get a read on europe, we are going off the charts to see where the stock might be headed. we are doing it with my college at real money.com. according to collins, it looks like it is ready to roar.
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with the stock an inch away from breaking out, check out this chart. first and form most two important momentum indicators which is called the relative strength index. this recent rounding bottom. okay. that is an important pattern. based on the strength, if it can hold above $7.25 which is 15
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cents below where it is right now. collins things we can see $8. through the lens of the tricks. the triple moving average that you can see this is something that the chartists use to detect changes before they happen. it is called a krcross over. it is a classic sign that you should buy the under lying stock.
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just over the last six months, represented by the dotted green line. both times give you a double digit move. the tricks about to make a big move higher. let's look at the weekly chart time frame. thankfully he sees reasons to be hopeful in the action. right now he is going through a
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rounding bottom pattern for the 4th time in two years. when you get one of these bottoms they are followed by a break out. what makes this different from the last three? they make them feel more bullish about the stock? the previous three rounding patterns, it moved in a flag formation and after the rounding bottom informed. it traded side ways for a while. and then when the channel was broken, they got it out of the stock.
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and by some bizarre logic, it is actually a good thing. how does it work? this time, we are trading back down into the cup formed by the bottom pattern. the last three times the stock was above the cut. and five or six percent further. this time around. the stock is lower and it is not over extended. this time, not being over extended there are two important levels.
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the second important level is there and that brings in a lot of buyers. it is not spent. he thinks you can put on a partial position. the stock falls to $650 all bets off. you know how it is. if the momentum starts to increase. it should push at the 8:00 le$8 and collins believed $10 is next. here is the bottom line. the reading of the charts, it could be about to make a sharp move higher. if he is right, that is good news. this is a terrific gauge of europe and if it offers us a way out. they can become the consolida
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consolidating good bank. we have to believe the situation across the atlantic is getting better. after all the torture they can put us throw, it seems like it might be beginning to resolve itself. stick with cramer.
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urks here is one country, best buy. the founder can't believe how his mighty collossis has fallen. amazon has raised 3 billion. >> another founder is borrowing at three, five and ten year intervals. don't know what that means, those are the price that uncle
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sam borrows. ish how many times do they get offered a price that may not be as good as amazon? how many people pay sales tax at best buy, but no sales tax at s amazon? best buy might not make it even if it does nothing. but who would take down the debt that the former ceo is trying to
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buy? amazon with that amount of capitol at those prices. not only does it have a chance to put best buy in an early grave? without being bound by the credit required to finance inventory or the need to pay escalating rents. amazon is powerful. the fact that amazon has opportunities that are that big. if you ask most of the retailers in this country what they could do with these things? they would say, i don't know. amazon wants to raise money to take over the world. at these rates they might be able to do it.
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